This analysis focuses on Bollywood from 2015 to 2025, examining the ROI of star-led films versus that of modest-budget films driven by strong content. We will look at how Akshay Kumar and Ranbir Kapoor’s star vehicles have fared, and compare them with films like The Kerala Story and Tumbbad, which had no A-list stars. All facts are backed by current data, and we’ll use tables to illustrate how budgets, box office collections, and ROI stack up for both categories. The goal is to understand if star power alone still justifies big spending, or if good stories can deliver equal (or better) bang for the buck.
Contents
- The Allure of Star Power in Bollywood
- Big Budgets, Big Names: ROI on Star-Led Films
- Content is King: Rise of Small-Budget Hits
- Star Vehicles vs. Content Hits: A Changing Equation
- The Road Ahead: Balancing Stars and Stories
The Allure of Star Power in Bollywood
Bollywood’s love affair with big stars is deeply rooted. Top actors not only draw fan followings but also influence a film’s financing and marketing. A significant chunk of a big film’s budget often goes into paying the star’s fee. In fact, industry insiders have noted that as much as 30–40% of a big-budget film’s cost can go just to the lead actor’s remuneration. The rationale is simple: a Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, or Hrithik Roshan headliner is expected to guarantee a massive opening weekend. This upfront draw is seen as insurance; the star’s presence should translate to ticket sales that recover the high costs.
Historically, this model did work. Films like the Dhoom series or Salman’s festival releases rode largely on star appeal and spectacle. Producers were willing to pour money into hefty salaries and lavish production values, confident that the star’s fan base would ensure a strong box office. For example, when a superstar like Tom Cruise can command a huge fee for a Hollywood film and still deliver a huge opening, Bollywood applies the same logic to its Khans and Kapoors. The belief was that big actors equal big buzz, and thus big returns.
However, high stakes come with high risks. When so much money is riding on a star, a misjudgment in content can be costly. Bollywood has learned this the hard way in recent years, as some big-star projects bombed despite the names attached. This has led to introspection within the industry. Notably, some producers report that many stars are now willing to take lower upfront fees and instead take a share of profits, aligning their pay with a film’s actual performance. This trend of backend deals suggests that even the stars recognize the need to ease the burden of huge budgets. In other words, the economics of star power are being recalibrated, star charisma alone is no longer seen as a guarantee, and there’s growing emphasis on balancing costs with content quality.
Big Budgets, Big Names: ROI on Star-Led Films
When it comes to return on investment, how have Bollywood’s biggest actors fared in the last decade? Let’s first look at movies led by major stars like Akshay Kumar and Ranbir Kapoor – both among the top-billed actors of this era- and see their box office ROI. ROI here is calculated as (Box Office Collection – Budget) ÷ Budget × 100%, which basically measures how much profit (or loss) was made relative to the production cost.
Akshay Kumar: Hits, Misses, and ROI
Akshay Kumar, often dubbed “Khiladi Kumar,” is known for his prolific output, sometimes four films in a single year. In the late 2010s, he enjoyed a golden run, delivering a string of hits from social dramas to action comedies. Many of these films had impressive ROI. For instance, Akshay’s satirical comedy Toilet: Ek Prem Katha (2017) was made on a modest budget of about ₹24 crore but earned over ₹133 crore at the box office, yielding a massive 456% ROI. Similarly, his space drama Mission Mangal (2019) and thriller Airlift (2016) were mid-budget projects that turned extremely profitable, each more than doubling the investment. In fact, among Akshay’s films since 2010, Toilet: Ek Prem Katha stands as the most profitable in percentage terms. Such successes show that when Akshay picked the right script, often with strong content and nationalism or social themes, his star power amplified the returns greatly.
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However, the last few years have been rough for Akshay. From 2020 onwards, he faced an unusual streak of flops, with only a couple of clear hits to his name. Industry analyses noted that out of his last 10 films, 8 were flops and only 2 managed to emerge as hits. Big-budget ventures like Samrat Prithviraj (2022) turned into disappointments; that historical drama was reportedly made on nearly ₹200 crore but failed to recover even half of it in theaters. In 2022 alone, Akshay had multiple releases (Bachchhan Paandey, Raksha Bandhan, Ram Setu, among others), and none became a clean hit. As a result, by early 2025, it was said that Akshay hadn’t had a genuine hit in five years, barring the exceptions of Sooryavanshi (2021) and OMG 2 (2023).
This is a dramatic change for a star once considered a guarantee of success. Even a recent war drama, Sky Force (2024) starring Akshay, struggled, with a budget of around ₹160 crore and collections of about ₹119.5 crore, it only recovered roughly 74% of its cost and fell short of profitability in its theatrical run. Clearly, star power alone didn’t save these films. Critics and insiders pointed out that repetitive content and weaker scripts were turning audiences away, proving that even a top star like Akshay Kumar cannot salvage a film that doesn’t connect with viewers.
Ranbir Kapoor: The Highs and Lows
Ranbir Kapoor, another leading man of the past decade, has experienced a roller-coaster box office journey. He started the 2010s with critical acclaim and decent hits (Barfi!, Rockstar), but then went through a rough patch where several of his big projects flopped. Big-budget experiments like Bombay Velvet (2015) and the long-delayed musical Jagga Jasoos (2017) were high-profile failures, despite Ranbir’s stardom. As trade observers noted, films like Tamasha (2015), Rockstar (2011), and Jagga Jasoos (2017) “may not have fired at the box office,” meaning they didn’t make money, even though they helped maintain Ranbir’s image as a risk-taking actor. From 2013 to 2017, Ranbir delivered more flops than hits, and his bankability was in question.
His fortunes turned with Sanju (2018), the biopic of actor Sanjay Dutt, which became Ranbir’s biggest hit. Sanju was made on a budget of about ₹80 crore and earned an enormous ₹341 crore in India, giving it a stellar ROI of around 326%. This blockbuster revived Ranbir’s standing overnight, showing that with the right film (in this case, a compelling true story plus Ranbir’s performance), a star vehicle can indeed deliver exceptional ROI. More recently, in late 2023, Ranbir headlined the action thriller Animal, which created a buzz. Animal had a hefty budget (around ₹200 crore) but turned out to be a major success, netting about ₹550 crore domestically. The film’s ROI was around 175%, a strong outcome, though still lower than Sanju’s returns. It proved that Ranbir can pull audiences in mass numbers when paired with engaging content and high production values.
That said, Ranbir too has learned that not every big-budget film pays off. His fantasy epic Brahmāstra Part One (2022), co-starring Alia Bhatt, was one of the most expensive Hindi films ever (budget reported in the ₹375–400 crore range). It grossed around ₹431 crore worldwide, which is a huge sum, but given the massive cost, the profit margins were thin, and the ROI was nowhere near those of smaller hits. Likewise, his period drama Shamshera (2022) flopped badly, reinforcing that audience tastes have become unpredictable.
Big stars like Akshay Kumar and Ranbir Kapoor have delivered both fantastic ROI and major losses in the last ten years. A star name is not a guarantee of profit, but when aligned with the right script and budget, it can still produce excellent returns. The following table highlights a few star-led Bollywood films from the past decade and their economics:
ROI of Selected Star-Led Bollywood Films (2015–2025)
| Film (Year) | Lead Star(s) | Budget (₹ Cr) | Box Office (₹ Cr) | ROI (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathaan (2023) – Mega-action thriller | Shah Rukh Khan | 250 | 543.2 (India) | 117% |
| Sanju (2018) – Biopic drama | Ranbir Kapoor | 80 | 341.2 (India) | 326% |
| Toilet: Ek Prem Katha (2017) – Social comedy | Akshay Kumar | 24 | 133.6 (India) | 456% |
| Jawan (2023) – Action masala | Shah Rukh Khan | 300 | 619.9 (India) | 107% |
Sources: Bollywood trade reports. ROI is calculated based on the India box office net collections vs. the reported budget.
As the table shows, a film like Pathaan, despite its enormous box office gross (over ₹543 crore in India), ended up with an ROI of roughly 117%, because its budget was also very high. In contrast, Sanju and Toilet: Ek Prem Katha, which had comparatively controlled budgets, yielded ROI figures in the few-hundred percent range. Jawan, another Shah Rukh Khan biggie of 2023, had a budget even bigger than Pathaan and managed just about a 106% return, essentially only doubling its cost, despite crossing ₹600 crore collection. These examples underline a key point: star-led films can bring huge revenue, but they often come with huge costs, leading to moderate ROI percentages. The real profit multipliers tend to be films that keep costs in check. And that is where content-driven cinema enters the fray.
Content is King: Rise of Small-Budget Hits
In the past decade, Bollywood has witnessed multiple small or medium-budget films, with little to no star power, achieving extraordinary success. These films, driven by strong storylines and word-of-mouth, underscore the idea that good content can sometimes trump star wattage when it comes to ROI. Unlike star vehicles, these movies don’t spend big on cast fees or extravagant sets; they rely on engaging plots, new faces or character actors, and clever marketing. When they strike a chord with the audience, the returns can be astounding.
A prime example is The Kerala Story (2023). This film had no mainstream stars (it featured relatively unknown actors like Adah Sharma) and was produced on a modest budget of about ₹30 crore. Thanks to controversial buzz and strong audience curiosity, it went on to collect around ₹238 crore at the Indian box office. This means it earned back its cost several times over, specifically, an ROI of roughly 694%. In other words, every ₹1 invested came back as nearly ₹7. The Kerala Story topped the charts as one of 2023’s most profitable films purely on the back of its content and word-of-mouth, despite lacking any superstar lead.
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Another notable case is Tumbbad (2018). This horror-fantasy film, rich in atmosphere and originality, was made for about ₹15 crore and featured no famous actors (Sohum Shah, also a producer, was the lead). Tumbbad didn’t light up the box office on its initial release; it earned only ~₹13.5 crore in 2018, not even recouping its budget. By conventional terms, it was a commercial flop. However, Tumbbad gained a cult following over time due to its unique storytelling and was even re-released in theaters in 2024, where it found a new audience. In its re-release run, the film collected an additional ₹23+ crore, pushing it into clear profitability. Combining the original and re-release earnings, Tumbbad ended up with about ₹37 crore gross in India, which translates to an ROI of around 147% (not counting re-release marketing costs).
This is a remarkable turnaround, a testament to content having long-tail value. Tumbbad shows that a film with great content can endure and eventually thrive, even if it doesn’t smash records on Day 1. It’s now regarded as one of Hindi cinema’s modern cult classics, proving that creative storytelling can be an asset in the long run.
Beyond these, the last ten years offer plenty of instances where story-driven films made on shoestring budgets achieved phenomenal ROI:
Stree (2018): A horror-comedy with a satirical twist, starring Shraddha Kapoor and Rajkummar Rao (popular names but not “Khans”), Stree cost around ₹20 crore and collected nearly ₹130 crore. That’s about 548% ROI, over six times its budget in profits. Its success spawned a sequel and confirmed that the audience craved fresh concepts.
Badhaai Ho (2018): A family comedy about an older couple’s unexpected pregnancy, made for roughly ₹22 crore, which earned ₹137 crore in India. ROI was about 522%. This Ayushmann Khurrana starrer had no “mega-star” but became a sleeper hit due to a relatable story and humor.
Uri: The Surgical Strike (2019): An action-drama based on a real military operation, starring Vicky Kaushal (who was not a huge star at the time). Budgeted around ₹25 crore, Uri raked in an incredible ₹244 crore domestically. The ROI came to approximately 876%, making it one of the most profitable Hindi films in recent memory. Its patriotic theme and the famous “How’s the josh?” catchphrase helped it sustain in theaters for weeks, far exceeding expectations.
The Kashmir Files (2022): Perhaps the most dramatic example, this small film (budget reportedly ~₹15–20 crore) based on the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits became a nationwide phenomenon. It grossed around ₹340 crore worldwide. Estimates put its ROI well above 2000%, which is almost unheard of. In fact, in terms of profit percentage, The Kashmir Files ranks among the highest in Bollywood’s history, despite featuring no big star (it was driven by ensemble actors and its contentious subject matter).
The pattern is clear, these films focused on strong, novel content and benefited from positive audience reception. Without tens of crores spent on star fees, their cost-to-revenue ratio was extremely favorable. The table below highlights a few standout content-driven Hindi films and their ROI:
ROI of Selected Content-Driven Bollywood Films (2015–2025)
| Film (Year) | Lead Actor(s) (if any) | Budget (₹ Cr) | Box Office (₹ Cr) | ROI (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Kerala Story (2023) – Social thriller | Adah Sharma (newcomer) | 30 | 238.3 (India) | 694% |
| Stree (2018) – Horror-comedy satire | Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor | 20 | 129.7 (India) | 548% |
| Badhaai Ho (2018) – Family comedy | Ayushmann Khurrana | 22 | 136.8 (India) | 522% |
| Uri: The Surgical Strike (2019) – Action drama | Vicky Kaushal | 25 | 244.1 (India) | 876% |
Sources: Trade reports and Koimoi analytics. All figures are approximate India net collections and estimated budgets.
These numbers illustrate how content-driven films can deliver ROI that dwarfs that of typical star vehicles. For instance, Stree and Badhaai Ho both earned over 5 times their cost in profit, and Uri almost 9 times. In comparison, a big star film like Pathaan made roughly 1.17 times its cost as profit. This isn’t to say Pathaan was not successful (it was a blockbuster in absolute terms), but purely from an ROI standpoint, its profitability was less efficient than that of smaller films.
It’s worth noting that not every content film becomes a blockbuster; many small films also fail to make a mark. The difference is that their failures don’t burn as deep a hole in the producer’s pocket due to lower budgets. On the flip side, when they hit the bullseye, the rewards are disproportionately high. The success of The Kerala Story and The Kashmir Files in recent years shows that a film can score big without established stars if the topic grabs attention. In today’s Bollywood, strong content backed by clever marketing can sometimes outshine a star-driven release, at least in terms of ROI.
Star Vehicles vs. Content Hits: A Changing Equation
Comparing star-led films with content-driven films reveals some telling trends:
Big Stars Still Guarantee Opening, But Not Sustenance: A movie with a Salman Khan or Shah Rukh Khan will almost always get a strong opening day by virtue of fan following. However, sustaining beyond the first weekend now depends on content quality and word-of-mouth. For example, Pathaan (2023) had a record-breaking opening thanks to SRK’s comeback hype and mass appeal, and it became a hit. But other star vehicles like Laal Singh Chaddha (2022, Aamir Khan) or Shamshera (2022, Ranbir Kapoor) opened well below expectations and crashed soon after, because audiences weren’t impressed with the content. This indicates that while star power brings viewers initially, the long-term run, which determines ROI, is dictated by how much viewers like the film. In contrast, a film like The Kashmir Files started small but kept growing week after week purely due to audience feedback, eventually beating much bigger films in total collection.
Higher Budgets = Higher Breakeven Point: Big star films often have budgets in the range of ₹150–300 crore (once you factor in production and marketing). This means they need to earn hundreds of crores just to break even. Pathaan and Jawan, for instance, needed to cross around ₹500–600 crore to be considered solidly profitable, which they fortunately did. But even then, their ROI percentages were just in the 100s, not 500% or 600%. On the other hand, content films with budgets under ₹30 crore can turn a profit with a ₹50 crore gross, and anything above ₹100 crore for them is spectacularly lucrative. The threshold for success is much lower, so the risk-reward profile is often better for small films. A movie like Stree, making ₹129 crore, is a super-hit because of its low cost, whereas a ₹129 crore gross for a superstar film might be deemed average or even a flop if the budget was high. The economics clearly diverge in this way.
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Audience Preference Post-2019: The late 2010s and early 2020s have been revealing in terms of audience behavior. Movies such as Andhadhun (2018), Article 15 (2019), Chhichhore (2019), and Drishyam 2 (2022), none of which relied on “Khan-level” star power, won audiences through strong storylines. Concurrently, several formulaic star vehicles started to falter. The industry also went through the COVID-19 pandemic, during which OTT platforms boomed. By the time cinemas reopened, viewers had been exposed to a variety of content online. They became less inclined to watch a film in theaters just for the star, unless it promised a grand theatrical experience or really good content. This was evident when even big names couldn’t save films that were panned by critics (for example, Akshay Kumar’s string of flops around 2022). On the flip side, when a star film did offer engaging content, such as SRK’s comeback in Pathaan, which had slick action and nostalgia, or Ranbir’s Sanju, which had a compelling narrative, audiences responded enthusiastically.
Content Films Create New Stars: Another interesting effect of content-driven successes is that they have turned their lead actors into bankable names. Ayushmann Khurrana, Rajkummar Rao, Vicky Kaushal, and Kartik Aaryan, these actors became stars because of the success of their small or medium-budget films. They are not traditional “massive star” material in the way the Khans or Kapoors were initially perceived, but they proved their mettle with ROI-rich films. Now, they themselves draw audiences for certain genres (e.g., Ayushmann for social comedies, Kartik for romantic comedies), albeit their fees are still moderate compared to the top superstars. This new wave shows the industry that investing in good scripts and upcoming talent can build the next generation of stars without breaking the bank.
When Stars and Content Converge: The ideal scenario, of course, is when a film has both a big star and great content. That’s when the magic truly happens in terms of both gross and ROI. We saw glimpses of this recently with Shah Rukh Khan’s Pathaan and Jawan (2023), these films had huge budgets and top stars, but they also delivered the entertainment value that satisfied audiences. As a result, they grossed upwards of ₹500–600 crore each, becoming two of the biggest Hindi earners ever. While their ROI% wasn’t as sky-high as smaller films, in absolute terms, they made enormous profits due to sheer volume.
Similarly, Salman Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan (2015) combined a superstar with an emotional, well-written story, resulting in blockbuster earnings and very healthy returns. These examples demonstrate that star power amplifies a good film’s success; a great movie with a superstar can achieve reach and revenue that a great movie with a newcomer might not, simply due to the expanded audience base. So, star vehicles are by no means obsolete; they just need to be backed by solid content to justify their cost.
The equation between star power and ROI has evolved. Filmmakers are increasingly asking: Why spend ₹200 crore for a ₹300 crore return, when you could spend ₹20 crore for a ₹100 crore return? The latter scenario, as seen with content hits, often yields a higher profit ratio and lower risk. This doesn’t mean big-budget star films will vanish; they have their own appeal, especially for event cinema like festive releases and franchise films. But there is a clear course-correction in Bollywood toward scripts and innovation, and a recognition that blindly throwing money at stars is not a foolproof formula.
The Road Ahead: Balancing Stars and Stories
As Bollywood moves forward, the industry is learning to strike a balance between star power and storytelling. Big actors are not going away, India’s celebrity culture and fanbase ensure that stars will continue to be a major draw. However, the financials behind filmmaking are becoming smarter. Producers are more cautious about greenlighting massive budgets unless the project justifies it. Many top actors, sensing the changing tides, are opting for profit-sharing deals and adjusting their fees to ease the production burden. This trend, as noted by producer Siddharth Roy Kapur, effectively makes stars “partners in the success” of a film rather than mere paid talent. When a star has a stake in the profits, they are motivated to ensure the film is good enough to succeed, and the initial cost goes down, benefiting ROI calculations.
We are also likely to see more hybrid films, those that pair a known star with a strong concept but keep budgets sensible. The success of mid-range films like Drishyam 2 (with Ajay Devgn) or Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 (with Kartik Aaryan) in recent years exemplifies this balance. These films had popular actors, but not overblown budgets, and they did very well commercially. It’s a blueprint that yields both the clout of a star and the efficiency of a content film.
Another aspect shaping the future is the audience’s exposure to global content. With streaming bringing international movies and shows to Indian living rooms, Bollywood viewers have become more quality-conscious. They won’t settle for a mediocre film just because a favorite hero is in it, something that perhaps earlier generations of moviegoers might have done. This pushes Bollywood to up its game in writing and production values. Big stars are now venturing into more diverse roles and genres as well, understanding that versatility and fresh stories are key to staying relevant.
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For instance, Akshay Kumar in OMG 2 (2023) tackled social issues and found success, a pivot from his usual action-comedy fare. Ranbir Kapoor took on a dark, violent role in Animal (2023), which paid off with a record-breaking run. Such choices indicate that stars are aligning themselves with stronger content, which ultimately benefits both box office and ROI.
On the flip side, the confidence gained by small-film successes means more investors are willing to back unconventional scripts and newcomers. The runaway success of films like Sairat (Marathi) and its Hindi remake, or Hindi originals like Khosla Ka Ghosla and Queen earlier in the decade, already set the stage for this paradigm. Now, with the emphatic wins of The Kerala Story, Stree, Kashmir Files, etc., this trend has cemented itself. We can expect Bollywood to continue producing high-concept, low-cost films aiming for big returns. These films might not always make ₹200 crore, but if they make ₹50–100 crore on a shoestring budget, they’re immensely profitable and also add creative variety to the industry.
In conclusion, big actors can still be “worth” big budgets if the project leverages their presence in the right way, by pairing star appeal with compelling content and controlling costs. Stars bring a certain guaranteed audience and can elevate a film’s profile, especially internationally or on opening weekends. But the days when a movie could succeed on star power alone are fading. The last ten years in Bollywood have proven that a film’s success and ROI depend on a mix of factors: engaging storytelling, smart budgeting, and yes, sometimes star aura, all working in harmony.
The most sustainable path for producers is to be judicious: use stars to pull in crowds, use great scripts to keep them hooked, and keep the spending realistic. As audiences chant “content is king,” the true royal treatment is given to films that offer a great experience, whether they come from a Khiladi or a newcomer. And when a movie manages to deliver that experience, the economics tend to take care of themselves, with healthy profits following naturally.
Ultimately, Bollywood’s economics is finding a new equilibrium where both star-driven spectacles and small content gems coexist. Big actors are still very much part of the equation, but they are no longer the only equation. The industry’s future success lies in marrying the charisma of its stars with the creativity of its storytellers. In doing so, Bollywood can ensure that big budgets are money well spent, and that the box office yields not just big numbers, but big returns on every rupee invested, keeping both the business and the audiences truly happy.